SoCon Basketball needs ETSU to make a smart hire

Steve Forbes (left) and Bob Richey (right) square off in a key Southern Conference game at Freedom Hall in December of 2018

When the 2020-21 season in Southern Conference basketball gets underway in early November should COVID-19 be out of the picture at that point, the league will have a different feel to it.

For the second-straight season, a 30-game winner at the reigning Southern Conference regular-season and tournament champions will be off to new surroundings, as Steve Forbes is set to take the reins at Wake Forest following five seasons at East Tennessee State where he won 130 games and a pair of SoCon titles. 

It's also the second year in a row that the SoCon has lost a coach to the Atlantic Coast Conference. Last year, it wasn't too long after the season that Mike Young took the head coaching job at Wofford following the Terriers run to the round of 32 and narrow loss to Kentucky. 

The Bucs, who went to the NCAA Tournament in Forbes' second year as the head coach in Johnson City, lost to Florida, 80-65, in the 2017 NCAA Tournament. It was bittersweet ending for the Bucs in 2019-20 as it was plenty of college basketball when the 2020 NCAA Tournament was canceled due to COVID-19. 

The Bucs won a school-record 30 games this past season, finishing 30-4 and on the verge of a national ranking before the remaining conference tournaments and NCAA Tournament were canceled on March 12 due to the coronavirus pandemic. 

In my opinion, it was Forbes coming into the SoCon that forced other programs in the league to step up to the plate as a programs, and by default, it made the whole league stronger as a result. Forbes was a hired by former ETSU Director of Athletics Dr. Dick Sander, who hit the ball out of the park by bringing Forbes to ETSU. It was a win for the Bucs, and it turned out to be a win for the Southern Conference. 

It will hard to replace Forbes, but he definitely left the job in much better shape than when he took the job in 2015-16, succeeding Murry Bartow after the Bucs finished 16-14 in their first season of membership back in the Southern Conference. 

Forbes was successful from the outset, and had the Bucs in the championship game in his first season at the helm only to lose to Chattanooga, as the Mocs knocked off the Bucs 73-67 in the championship game in Asheville. 

Forbes brought ETSU basketball back to the prominence it was so known for in the early-mid 1990s. When Alan LeForce was asked to resign after pressure from the administration following a 7-20 1995-96 season. Though it wouldn't be a devastating downfall for ETSU basketball in the long run, the years from 1996-2000 weren't exactly ideal for Bucs basketball. ETSU was a combined 49-62 during that time-frame. On the surface, it didn't look like a great hire, but patience would win the day.

DeChellis would finally start building the Bucs into a consistent winner once again following the 2000-01 season, as the Bucs finished with an 18-11 record and won the SoCon’s North Division with a 13-3 record in league play. Two years later, DeChellis led the Bucs back to the NCAA Tournament after claiming both the North Division and tournament titles before moving on to become the head coach at Penn State. 

Bartow seemed like the perfect fit when he took over for DeChellis.  However, after leading the Bucs to three NCAA Tournament appearances, with two of those coming as a member of the Atlantic Sun, and the other one, which came in the second to last year as SoCon members before moving on to the Atlantic Sun came with DeChellis’ players. 

Now, ETSU basketball finds itself at a crossroads once again. Whether to go after another power five assistant or go after a highly successful lower mid-major coach. The thought process from several who know the program well is that the direction would seem to be directed towards an assistant or head coach that is already at a major power five program.  

What Will The Fallout Be?

The burning question ETSU fans now have is what will the fallout be? Well, it has already been announced that Forbes will be taking his entire staff with him to Wake Forest, with the only one he is leaving behind the one he hopes Director of Athletics Scott Carter will hire—Jason Shay.

Shay and Forbes are longtime friends, and its not the coaching acumen that many question about Shay? It’s the social aspect of the job, which Forbes was such a natural in his position. Forbes had an infectious personality, and from the first time I met coach at the 2017 tournament, I knew there was something about his presence that was different than previous ETSU coaches. He had that “it” factor.

We don’t know much about Shay’s personality, or at least I don’t, but I know the guy can flat out coach basketball. The recruiting side of it also involves personality, which Forbes again was a natural. He was built for that part of the job. Most times in any sport the hardest adjustment from going from being an assistant to a head coach is the CEO part of the position, and being able to delegate and trust tasks to your assistants rather than micro-manage them.

If it is Shay, he not only will have to maintain the transfers coming in and hold the recruiting class together, including the grad transfers who will be eligible immediately, but he will also be asked to hire an entire staff of his own coaches. Like Forbes, Shay’s basketball knowledge and style were highly influenced by a Big Ten, physical style of basketball. After all, Shay was a walk-on for tough as nails Tom Davis at Iowa in 1995, and it was a roster that featured stars like Chris Kingsbury,  J.R. Koch and Andre Woolridge.

The other, and perhaps the biggest question for Shay should he end up being “the guy” will be how well he does in keeping this team returning and coming in together. There would be a great temptation for someone like a Daivien Williamson to transfer back closer to his home of Greensboro, N.C., to play for Forbes at Wake Forest. For that matter, it could also be a major lure for someone like versatile and multi-talented Bo Hodges,  who is looking to realize a dream of playing in the NBA. 

The platform a place like Wake Forest would provide, and the competition he would face in the ACC would certainly make it a much more tempting decision to transfer without having to sit out a year if he transferred as a grad transfer for his final year. 

But even more than that, guys like Charlie Weber, LeDarrius Brewer, Ty Brewer, Damari Monsanto, Patrick Good, Octavion Corley, and Vonnie Patterson are the future of the program that Shay has to build his foundation as a head coach on. Whether or not he can keep Ledarrius (Southeast Missouri State) and Ty Brewer (Southeastern Louisiana), Jalen Johnson (Tennessee), Silas Adheke (Northern Kentucky) and David Sloan (Kansas State). The harder ones to keep as commitments would obviously be Johnson and Adheke because they are already coming in as graduate transfers. Only time will tell if this class stays together, or whether other all-conference players on the roster, such as Williamson or Hodges decide to jump ship (no pun attended) as well. 

For mid-major madness, I listed some candidates I thought might be viable candidates for the ETSU job below. I have added a couple of names to the list given the news I was informed of about power five schools. 

Jason Shay (ETSU associate head coach)

Shay and Forbes are lifelong friends, and like Forbes, Shay is an Iowa native. Shay has the acumen to keep the Bucs as regular contenders in the Southern Conference race, year-in and year-out. The question becomes: Will he be offered the job? If he isn’t, he’ll be alongside Forbes in Winston-Salem. Shay walked on for Iowa for Tom Davis’s Hawkeyes in 1995.

Mike Morrell (UNC Asheville head coach)

The Elizabethton, Tenn., native led UNC Asheville to an 11-win improvement in his second season at the helm of the Bulldogs and is one of the brightest young minds in the mid-major coaching ranks. He also knows the area and grew up not far from Johnson City.

Michael Schwartz (Tennessee associate head coach)

Rick Barnes and Forbes have a great relationship, so it would be natural to look just up the road to Knoxville for a potential replacement. That coach could be Schwartz, who has served in two different stints under Barnes during his time at Tennessee. Schwartz was the associate head coach under Barnes at Texas back in 2016, and re-joined Barnes at Tennessee in 2019.

Pat Kelsey (Winthrop head coach)

We know, he’s already at a successful mid-major program, but Kelsey has proven himself a winner during his eight seasons at Winthrop, posting a 163-93 overall record with four 20-win seasons. During his time as an assistant at Xavier under Chris Mack, Mack praised him as one of the top assistant coaches in the nation. Kelsey led the Eagles to the NCAA Tournament in 2017.

Penny Collins (Tennessee State head coach)

Penny Collins is a coach that many of the ETSU faithful would want to lead the next era of the program. Collins is the highly successful leader of the Tennessee State basketball program in March of 2018-19, and has led the Tigers to a pair of 18-win assistants in his two seasons at the helm of the Tigers basketball program.

Kenny Payne (Kentucky associate head coach)

Payne has been a highly successful assistant coach during his time as an assistant at Oregon and currently for the past 10 seasons as an assistant coach under John Calipari at Kentucky. In 2020, Payne was named to the STEP UP Assistant Coaches Hall of Fame. He’s known as a dynamic recruiter, and has been nationally renowned for his work with big men, particularly during his time at Kentucky. He’s responsible for the development of such players as Anthony Davis (LA Lakers) and  Karl-Anthony Towns (Minnesota Timberwolves). Luring him away to Johnson City might be a bit of a tall order, but if ETSU is willing to spend big money once again, it might be enough to lure a coach like Payne. 

Ira Bowman (Auburn assistant coach)

Bowman is known as another tremendous recruiter, and in his first season on the job, was part of a Bruce Pearl staff that made a run all the way to the Final Four. Bowman helped Penn to a 24-9 record in 2017-18 as a top assistant for the Quakers. The former seven-year veteran of the NBA helped the Tigers sign a top-10 recruiting class in 2019-20. 

Barclay Radebaugh (Charleston Southern head coach)

Radebaugh is an East Tennessee State graduate and has carved out a pretty successful career as head coach at Charleston Southern. He was once a graduate assistant at ETSU in 1986-88, and was one of Furman’s top assistants under Butch Estes from 1990-94. Radebaugh even served as an assistant under Gregg Marshall from 2001-03 at Winthrop. Marshall was, of course, one of Forbes’ mentors at Wichita State.

Why East Tennessee State Needs to be Good

Next year is crucial for Southern Conference going forward, and while ETSU should suffer some of the predictable headaches with having to make a coaching change at this point in the journey for the program, the transition has to be as seamless as possible. 

Why might it be so important you might ask? Well, it’s important because what’s at stake with this next hire for the Bucs basketball program is whether or not only ETSU can carry this momentum forward into next season, but the league as a a whole. 

Without an NCAA Tournament this past season, we shall never know if both Furman and UNC Greensboro were chosen for the NIT, or whether it would have been just Furman, or maybe neither team would have gone. What we do know is for the past five years pretty much everyone that follows mid-major basketball knows who East Tennessee State—know about its tradition—and know that the program was, and always will be more than just one coach or player.

While no coach has ever won more games through five seasons than Forbes, there have been other great coaches that have come through the program before. Names like Madison Brooks, Les Robinson, Ed DeChellis and Alan LeForce just to name a few. The Bucs have always been more than one head coach or one player. 

But I might make this assumption at least. When DeChellis left, or Robinson, or even when LeForce resigned, at no time was their a more crucial time to make the right hire for ETSU basketball. Following the departure of LeForce, the SoCon saw a noticeable decline during the first few years of the DeChellis regime. Southern Conference basketball was not very good from 1996-2000. 

Dating from LeForce’s last season at the helm of ETSU basketball, which was the 1995-96 season, the champions are as follows over a five-year period: It goes Western Carolina (1996/No. 16 seed), Chattanooga (1997/No. 14 seed), Davidson (1998/No. 14 seed), College of Charleston (1999/No. 8  seed) and Appalachian State (2000/No. 14 seed). Five different champions over five seasons, with a bit of randomness in the league during that period.

While ETSU, Marshall and Chattanooga carried the banner for the league for the SoCon for the better part of two decades in the 1980s and ‘90s, by the turn of the century, the league was looking for some continuity among its top teams once again. Think about it. 

Western Carolina wasn’t supposed to win the 1996 Southern Conference title, as Davidson entered the tournament as the heavy favorites to claim that title in Greensboro, as the Wildcats had been as dominant against the top of the league in 1995-96 as Wofford was In 2018-19, although since the league wasn’t as strong, the Wildcats would get close, but never achieve a ranking in the national poll. 

The Catamounts acquitted themselves well in the NCAA Tournament, going toe-to-toe with No. 1 seed Purdue at The Pit in New Mexico before eventually losing 76-73. A year later, Chattanooga was dominant in the SoCon, and though the Mocs didn’t go undefeated under the all-time winningest coach in Chattanooga history, Mack McCarthy, the Mocs made their mark in the NCAA Tournament.

Following an epic, 71-70, overtime win over Marshall in the 1997 SoCon championship game at the Greensboro Coliseum, which saw NBA Lottery pick Johnny Taylor score 14 points en route to helping the Mocs back to the NCAA Tournament after a year hiatus, UTC was a team on a mission when they arrived in the NCAA Tournament to do battle with Georgia as the No. 14 seed in the Southeast Regional First Round game. 

Much like ETSU with Forbes, Wofford with Young, or even Davidson with McKillop, you got the feeling that any one of those teams had coaches that could keep their respective teams in a game in the NCAA Tournament with just about anyone, no matter how out-talented or out-athletes any one of those teams might have been in an NCAA Tournament setting. 

The Mocs reeled off wins over Georgia (73-70) and Illinois (75-63) to reach the Sweet Sixteen. Folks knew about McCarthy and they knew about Chattanooga’s basketball tradition. 

Although UTC would end up eventually losing to Providence, 71-65, in Birmingham in the Sweet Sixteen, there was a certain optimism about SoCon basketball coming off such a run. And with highly successful Trans-America Athletic Conference member College of Charleston slated to join the league for the league for the 1998-99 season, and UNC Greensboro coming into the SoCon in the 1997-98 season, it would have seemed to have been a time when SoCon basketball might have been ready to flourish like it has in its current span, with Wofford, ETSU, Furman and UNCG.  

However, in 1997, Mack McCarthy was fired after doing something in violation of school policy, which involved a relationship with a Mocs cheerleader. It got McCarthy canned, and though the SoCon would still have emerging Davidson under McKillop,  as well as Appalachian State under Buzz Peterson, ETSU and Chattanooga were about to enter a period of rebuilding, and though Chattanooga was very mediocre under McCarthy’s right-hand man Henry Dickerson, it just wasn’t the same when the Mocs hired from within. 

The Mocs would struggle to find themselves again as a basketball program until the arrival of Jeff Lebo in 2001, and then would finally make the tournament again in 2005 under the direction of former ETSU assistant John Shulman. That time the Mocs got it right hiring from within with Shulman. 

But from 1996-2000, it was an awkward time for Southern Conference hoops scene as a whole, due in large part to what I would call a time of transition and patience under Ed DeChellis at ETSU, while at UTC, even though Dickerson knew the program, he just obviously wasn’t the right hire. 

Though College of Charleston would achieve a national ranking in 1999 and knock off North Carolina, it was still largely a team made up of players that would have been dominant in any mid-major league in the country. After College of Charleston, Appalachian State and Davidson, there was an extreme drop-off in the league’s pecking order.

From about 1998-2006, the SoCon was a mid-major league that didn’t garner much respect anywhere. It was the punching bag for even the top of other mid-major conferences, due in large part from the traditional powers like Chattanooga and ETSU not being relevant at the same time in most seasons. The Bucs, who won the league back-to-back in 2003 and ’04, bolted for the Atlantic Sun following the 2004-05 season. 

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In 1997, the SoCon suffered a blow just as bad as McCarthy getting canned in July, as it would see Marshall officially leave the SoCon to join the Mid-American Conference. Marshall had been another traditional league power that people knew nationally throughout college basketball as a member of the SoCon. Coaches like Dave Huckaby, Billy Donovan and Gregg White helped keep the Thundering Herd a national name as a mid-major, which also raised the prestige of the SoCon.

In 2000, Buzz Peterson finally broke through and won the championship and took the Mountaineers to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 21 years. Then, Rufus Leach tragically drowned in the Watauga River, and then Buzz Peterson left shortly thereafter to become the new head coach at Tulsa. The Mountaineers haven’t been back to the NCAA Tournament since, and it wasn’t until the Cougars exited the SoCon that it would make the NCAA Tournament again following being so dominant in its first year in the league under John Kresse. 

Stephen Curry arrived at Davidson in 2006, and slowly the SoCon prestige would rise little-by-little from about 2006-09, and then it would be a sharp decline after the ’08-09 season. In fact, the SoCon’s current success had the perfect storm of Mike Young finally getting Wofford in gear in 2010, winning the first of five tournament titles in a decade, and the second major event was the hiring of Steve Forbes at ETSU during the spring of 2015 after the Bucs first year back in the league. 

In fact the 2015-16 season was the season that started to see a significant rise in the level of competition in the league, with Forbes making the Bucs into an instant contender, Furman making a near-miraculous run to the SoCon title in 2015 and returned everyone for the following season, and Wes Miller leading the Spartans to its first postseason win as a Division I member in the College Basketball Invitational. It was the beginning of a major turnaround and ascendance for SoCon basketball.

Which finally brings me back to my original point. A coach doesn’t and won’t ever make a program. But guys like Steve Forbes, Mack McCarthy, Bob McKillop, Mike Young, Billy Donovan,  Wes Miller, and Les Robinson have given this league a personality over the years. There are still two of the best coaches in mid-major basketball left, in Furman’s Bob Richey and UNCG’s Miller. But the league needs a third guy at ETSU. 

A guy that won’t let the Bucs slip into obscurity in mid-major hoops and then have to fight to get back to its traditional success like it did under DeChellis. The SoCon needs ETSU to be good now, and that’s because my belief is if you hear the top four names enough year-in and year-out during this current time of success at Furman, Wofford, UNCG and ETSU, then it’s bound to lead to an at-large berth soon. Let’s hope ETSU makes the right choice.

I think Shay has the coaching acumen to be the guy to take the program forward, however, as proven in the past, it’s been a mixed bag when hiring from within at some programs. Here’s a look at a few.

Furman’s Niko Medved leaves for Drake/Furman hires top assistant Bob Richey—-COMPLETE SUCCESS SO FAR!

UTC’s Mack McCarthy fired/UTC hires Henry Dickerson—Failure

App State’s Buzz Peterson leaves for Tulsa/App State hires Houston Fancher—Not a complete success, but not a failure either.

App State’s Buzz Peterson leaves for a second time for UNC Wilmington in 2010/App State hires Jason Capel—COMPLETE FAILURE!

ETSU’s Les Robinson leaves for NC State/ETSU hires top assistant Alan LeForce—Success for the most part.

Wofford’s Richard Johnson retires/Wofford hires top assistant Mike Young—COMPLETE SUCCESS AND A GAME-CHANGER!/This one took patience though.

Wofford’s Mike Young moves on to Virginia Tech/Wofford hires top assistant Jay McAuley—SUCCESS so far.

UTC head coach Jeff Lebo leaves for Auburn/UTC hires top assistant John Shulman—Success for the most part, as he won two conference titles!

Samford fired Bennie Seltzer/Samford hired top assistant Scott Padgett—Not a success, but not a complete failure…more the wrong fit and lack of support. 

UNCG’s Mike Dement steps down in Dec. of 2011/Wes Miller takes over in an interim role and wins SoCon Coach of the Year—HUGE SUCCESS!

—There are also two outliers…Furman and UNCG, who have hired coaches that were once either head coaches or assistants before and then left only to return to those programs. Those coaches are Mike Dement, who served previously as the head coach of the Spartans from 1991-95 before becoming the head coach at SMU. Dement would return to UNCG exactly a decade later to become the head coach. 

—Furman hired Niko Medved prior to the 2013-14 season after firing Jeff Jackson. Medved had been a part of Larry Davis’ staff from 2000-06, but Medved was not retained by Jackson. Medved went on to ply his trade at Colorado State before returning to Furman. An interesting side note is that Jackson hired Bob Richey as an assistant from Charleston Southern’s staff in the spring of 2012. After Jackson was fired, Richey was the only coach retained by Medved from Jackson’s staff.