Wednesday, March 19, 2025

NCAA Tournament Preview: No. 15 Wofford (19-15) vs. No. 2 Tennessee (27-7)

2025 NCAA Tournament Preview


Region and Round: Midwest Region/First Round

The Day, Date and Time: Thursday, March 20, 2025/6:50 pm EST

The Game: No. 2 Tennessee (27-7) vs. No. 15 Wofford (19-15)

The Location and Venue: Lexington, KY/Rupp Arena

Series: 9th meeting/Tennessee leads 8-0

Where to Watch: TNT

The Game: When Tennessee and Wofford take on each other in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday night, it will mark just the ninth all-time meeting between the two and just the second meeting in the past two decades. The most recent clash between the two came during the 2023-24 season, as the Vols picked up what was an 82-61 win over the Terriers.

The Southern Conference enjoys a proud tradition as one of the mid-major conferences that has not only one that has thrived through the years, but also one that that is on the rise in strength in recent seasons, and the league ranks 13th out of 31 NCAA Division I Basketball Conferences according to KenPom. The SoCon has posted a 33-81 record all-time in the NCAA Tournament.

The only other Southern Conference team the Vols have faced in their history in the NCAA Tournament is Furman, taking on the Paladins back during the 1980 NCAA Tournament, as the Vols were able to pick up an 80-69 win over Furman in an East Regional First Round matchup at the Greensboro Coliseum.

The Terriers have written themselves quite their own narrative story over the past 2.5 seasons under the direction of third-year head coach Dwight Perry, who has led the Terriers to this game, despite a dark cloud hanging over the program following former head coach Jay McCauley’s 3.5 years as the head coach. Perry took over the Wofford program in December of 2022, and it didn’t take long for Perry to influence his core group, as he helped lead the Terriers to a thrilling 67-62 win over SEC member Texas A&M in just his third game in charge as the interim head coach.

The Terriers have shown glimpses of what they could be in Perry’s short time as the head coach over the past three seasons. In addition to that win over the Aggies in Perry’s first season as the head coach, Wofford would pick up a thrilling buzzer-beating win over No. 3 UNC Greensboro courtesy of a BJ Mack layup at the buzzer that propelled the Terriers to an unlikely semifinal appearance in Perry’s first season as the head coach, although at that time, it was as an interim head coach.

It could be argued that the 2023 SoCon Tournament quarterfinal win over No. 3 UNCG was a significant turning point for Perry personally, who was hired as the head coach shortly after that thrilling win over the Spartans in Asheville, as it was evident the effect that Perry had on his team. The fact that despite all that could have gone wrong during that 2022-23 season, the then 35-year old head coach was able to piece together what was a 17-16 campaign when the team had threatened what amounted to a team mutiny if McAuley remained installed as the head coach of the Terrier program in early December of 2022, almost seems like a minor miracle in hindsight.

The biggest thing that Perry has been able to do is helping Wofford take notable steps back towards the championship success and the ultimate high bar of success reached by the Terrier program in terms of success back in the 2018-19 season, as Wofford became one of only four teams to ever win 30 games in a season in league history, as well as being one of just two current members and three members overall to win a tournament game this century.

Wofford took down Seton Hall, 84-68, in an opening round win during the 2019 NCAA Tournament before eventually bowing out to No. 2 Kentucky (L, 56-62) in the Round of 32. It was a remarkable run under former head coach Mike Young, who helped the Terriers earn a No. 7 seed in the Midwest Region in the tournament after achieving its first-ever AP Top 25 ranking during the regular season.

Perry has had to deal with some key departures ever since his first season as head coach, with much of that having to do with the fallout of the McCauley era as the head coach, in which must have seemed more like a dictatorship rather than a coaching tenure under McCauley. Among the main issues was practice time, or too much practice time put in a different way.

Because of such a tumultuous situation, Perry lost two top performers, in forward All-SoCon forward BJ Mack and guard and SoCon Freshman of the Year Eric Paveletzke heading into the 2023-24 season, and despite the tough situation, Perry was able to lead Wofford to a sixth-place finish.

For the first time in his short time as the head coach at Wofford, Perry was able to retain nearly all of his talent that he had from a previous season, and though the regular-season might have only shown a near-identical finish to last year’s finish, the patience paid off for guys like guards Corey Tripp (14.3 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 3.2 APG), Jackson Sivills (9.3 PPG, 3.8 RPG), guard Dillon Bailey (11.3 PPG, 2.5 RPG), forward Jeremy Lorenz (7.9 PPG, 3.8 RPG) and center Kyler Filewich (11.9 PPG, 9.4 RPG), who have stayed loyal to Perry and the Terrier program, despite opportunities to leave and go explore other options.

In an era when it would have been easy to just hop into the transfer portal to make a change, Wofford would return all but eight points from a year ago heading into the 2024-25 season. The eight returnees marked the most to return for Wofford from one season to the next since the 2021-22 campaign. The Terriers

As big as it was to retain nearly all that talent from last season, Wofford and Perry even had some adversity to deal with entering the 2024-25 season, with Wofford’s top sixth man—guard Chase Cormier (7.1 PPG, 1.8 RPG in 2023-24)—deciding to step away from the program and redshirt just prior to the season to enter the transfer portal, as well as a season-ending injury to Egyptian big man Belal El-Shakery (3.3 PPG, 4.1 RPG), who was lost just eight games into the season and was a player set to be one of the most improved big men in the league this season and was set to make a jump similar to that of Samford’s Achor Achor had he not has season end prematurely due to an injury.

So even though Wofford has turned its retention into ultimate success in Asheville, it’s been a team affected depth-wise in both the backcourt and frontcourt this season without those two key pieces, which could have really helped Wofford reach an even higher level this season should one or both been with the team this season.

The trio of Filewich, Tripp and Sivills have been with Perry every step of the way during his short time as the Wofford head coach, while he added Dillon Bailey prior to the start of last season after he transferred in from Division II Northeastern State in Arkansas. Bailey was added prior to the start of the 2023-24 season, while the Terriers and staff added one significant player from the transfer portal prior to this season, with Justin Bailey (9.6 PPG, 3.5 RPG) making the short transition from nearby USC Upstate to Wofford prior to this season. Justin Bailey, along with freshmen guard additions Kahmare Holmes (4.1 PPG, 2.0 RPG) and Luke Flynn (4.2 PPG, 2.9 RPG), have proven to be key cogs in the wheel for Wofford and a big reason they were able to break through and win the 2025 SoCon Tournament title.

By and large, though, it’s been loyalty and patience that offered their notable payoff over the course of three days in March, as Wofford was able to knock No. 3 off East Tennessee State (W, 72-60), No. 7 VMI (85-65), and No. 5 Furman (W, 92-85) en route to helping Wofford get back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in six years. The Terriers became just the first No. 6 seed in the 105-year history of the SoCon Tournament to make the tournament title game as well as win it.

Wofford took on an extremely tough non-conference slate, which featured trips to NCAA Tournament teams Duke and Lipscomb, as well as games at CAA members Elon and College of Charleston and Atlantic 10 member Saint Louis, as well as a tricky home game against vastly improved North Alabama. Elon (CBI), Saint Louis (NIT), and North Alabama (NIT) will also be a part of the March festivities, with that trio set to take part in March Madness as a part of either the NIT or the CBI.

It could be argued that there was a significant shift to Wofford’s season after it went on the road and captured a 68-63 win at Saint Louis, and though Wofford seemed to get lost in the mix in the regular-season in what was a tough Southern Conference, they were never an opponent that could be counted out in Asheville, proving what many prognosticators of the league had said prior to the 2025 tournament, and that is any of six teams could win the title. Wofford entered the 105th SoCon Tournament as the No. 6 seed. The Terriers ended a streak of eight-straight SoCon regular-season champions to cut down the nets at the Harrah’s Cherokee Center.

While Filewich’s consistency, rebounding and toughness were main factors in Asheville, which ultimately landed him 2025 SoCon Tournament Most Outstanding Player accolades, it was the timely perimeter shooting of Wofford over three days that likely proved just as important. Wofford’s trend upward on the defensive end has also been notable, and though the Terriers are one of just four teams to win the SoCon Tournament in Asheville without ranking in the top three in defensive efficiency entering the tournament since 1996-97, the Old Gold and Black ranked just outside the top three at No. 4 entering the tournament in Asheville.

Maybe even more important was how Wofford was able to shoot the basketball from three-point range that enabled it to finish off the season in style, connecting on 37 threes at a 44.0% (37-of-84) over a three-game stretch to ultimately cut down the nets in Asheville. It was the most combined threes the Terriers have hit over any three-game stretch this season. Wofford ended up connecting on a total of 329 three-pointers for the season following their prolific performance last weekend in Asheville, finishing third in the SoCon behind only Furman (370) and Samford (344).

The thing that the Terriers do better than anything, however, is rebound the basketball, as the Terriers enter the 2025 NCAA Tournament leading the SoCon in rebound margin (+7.6) and that also ranks 12th overall in the NCAA.

Wofford’s Filewich, who transferred in from Southern Illinois prior to the 2021-22 season, and he’s become the heart and soul of Perry’s team. Much will be made about his unorthodox free throw style, and the fact that Rick Barry was brought in to try and help improve his technique, but I am pretty sure the big fella would rather the analysts focus on other parts of his game that he does amazingly well rather than an area that he has struggled with for a large portion of his career at both SIU and Wofford.

For his career with the Terriers, Filewich has posted 21 double-doubles and has 22 in his career going back to his time spent at SIU. The 6-9, 260-lb native of Manitoba is currently tied for 29th nationally in total double-doubles, while his 9.4 rebounds per game were good enough to lead the Southern Conference this past season. He ended up garnering Third-Team All-SoCon honors according to the league’s head coaches, however, he was named the SoCon Tournament’s Most Outstanding Player.

In addition to his ability to rebound the basketball and position his body inside to get easy points on the interior, with a 57.6% (182-of-316) field goal percentage, the senior from the Great White North averages 3.1 assists-per-game, which makes him arguably the best passing man in the Southern Conference. His primary kryptonite is his free throw shooting, as Filewich is shooting just 31.8% (42-of-132) from the charity stripe this season. Despite that, however, teams have not resorted to intentionally fouling Filewich this season.

While Filewich will start in the paint, Perry surrounds him with four guards that can all shoot the basketball. The most versatile of those four is without question Corey Tripp, who is without question one of the best overall basketball players in the Southern Conference. Tripp is an outstanding athlete, a good defender, as well as being a three-level scorer. He’s the only player that could really challenge Tennessee from an ability standpoint, but he is prone to careless turnovers at times. He will have to be especially cognizant of that facing the SEC’s top on-ball defender, in Zakai Zeigler, as he is Tennessee’s all-time steals leader.

Tripp owned the month of February, as he averaged 18.3 PPG over the final month of the regular-season, and he finished off the regular season and tournament playing some of his best basketball of the season, finishing a late-season home loss with a career-high 31 points in the 73-68 loss. Tripp is one of three players to cross the 1,000-point plateau this season, as he was joined by forward Kyler Filewich and guard Justin Bailey in that category during the 2024-25 season.

Tripp has found his way into double figures in 28 of 33 games during the 2024-25 season, which included 20 or more points in five games this season. The senior from Medina, OH, is shooting 35.5% (60-for-169) from three-point range this season to go along with his team-leading average of 14.3 PPG. Tripp finished last season’s loss to Tennessee with 19 points on 9-of-14 shooting from the field and was 1-for-5 from three-point land. He also averages 4.0 rebounds-per-contest and is dishing out 3.2 assists-per-game.

Tripp will be joined by Wofford’s three other primary starting guards, which are Jackson Sivills, USC Upstate transfer Justin Bailey and sharp-shooting perimeter threat Dillon Bailey. Sivills is a player to keep an eye on for Wofford, as seemingly he was a player in the Southern Conference Tournament that would end up being key to Wofford’s success, knocking down vital threes in every game, with two big ones down the stretch in Wofford’s wins over both East Tennessee State and in the championship game against Furman. He was the only other Terriers player in double figures against Tennessee last season with the two played each other, finishing that contest with 10 points.

Sivihas connected on a career-best 60 three-pointers in 2024-25 and is shooting 34.7% (60-of-173) from downtown, which included going 11-of-17 from downtown, or 64.7% from downtown in the Southern Conference Tournament. In my estimation, without his elite shooting in Asheville, Wofford wouldn’t have won the SoCon Tournament, and he likely should have been the tournament’s “Most Outstanding Player.” Sivills scored a career-high 20 points for the Terriers in Wofford’s SoCon title win over Furman.

Both Baileys—Justin and Dillon—also add an element of a threat from three-point range this season, with the two having combined to connect on 120 of the team’s 329 triples this season, with Dillon Bailey’s 65 treys leading the team, while Justin Bailey’s 45.1% (55-of-122) shooting clip from downtown leads the team. Justin Bailey is right on the cusp of double figures averaging 9.6 PPG to go with a team-leading 1,2 steals-per-game (41 steals), as he is widely regarded as the team’s best on-ball defender.

The native of Taylors, S.C., is the missing piece that the Terriers added this season and his perimeter defending, especially during the Southern Conference Tournament in Asheville, was key to leading the Terriers back to the Big Dance for the first time in six years. On an interesting side note, Justin Bailey was a teammate of Tennessee guard Jordan Gainey during the 2022-23 season in what was Bailey’s freshman season, while Gainey was a sophomore. Bailey averaged 10.6 PPG and Gainey posted 15.2 PPG as a sophomore, highlighting was a talented Spartans backcourt.

Off the bench, Wofford will look to a pair of freshmen guards Kahmare Holmes and Luke Flynn, while Jeremy Lorenz has been a key piece as any, offering key support in the post when Filewich has to get a breather or gets in foul trouble. Another key piece that wasn’t available during the SoCon Tournament is guard Anthony Arrington (4.0 PPG, 2.3 RPG), who was notably missed during the SoCon Tournament, as he became ill a night before the Terriers’ first game against ETSU.

Tennessee Tidbits: Tennessee hangs its hat on the defensive end of the floor, and the Vols aren’t the biggest team in the world, but their length and athleticism on both ends of the floor could be cause for concern for Wofford. Tennessee has been able to leverage much of its success on the backs of mid-major talents each of the past couple of seasons, with Northern Colorado’s Dalton Knecht being one of the main reasons the Vols advanced all the way to the Elite Eight a year ago, while this season, it’s been more of a committee, with Jordan Gainey (11.4 PPG, 3.4 RPG) from USC Upstate and former North Florida Osprey Chaz Lanier (leads team at 17.7 PPG) having proven to be a major part of the Vols’ 27 wins this season. In fact, the third ingredient to that mid-major turned major matrix has been forward Igor Milicic Jr (10.0 PPG, 6.9 RPG), who came on board prior to this season from Charlotte. The lone major conference transfer the Vols have been reliant is 6-11 junior forward Felix Okpara (7.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 54 BLKs), who came on board for Barnes and the Vols just prior to the season from Ohio State. He gives the Vols a true rim protector, and has made opponents adjust their shots time and time again in his first season with the Vols. He has three games this season in which he has blocked four shots and has swatted away a total 54 blocks this season, which is among the top 10 best in program history for single-season blocks. Okpara’s 6.2 RPG is second to only teammate and frontcourt partner Igor Milicic’s 6.9 RPG. Tennessee’s top all-around player, however, is point guard Zakai Zeigler (13.8 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 242 assists, 64 steals) and he will finish out his career on the top five in SEC history in career assists (714 helpers). Zeigler was the 2024-25 SEC Defensive Player of the Year and one of the matchups to keep an eye on Thursday evening will be the one between Wofford’s Corey Tripp and Tennessee’s Zeigler. The final piece to the a potential national title puzzle this season has been senior guard Jahmai Mashack (6.0 PPG, 4.3 RPG), who connected on a 35-foot three at the buzzer to help the Vols defeat Alabama in one of many SEC thrillers this season. He’s been Tennessee’s “glue guy” this season and is one of the top “glue guys” in all of college basketball this season.

How Can Wofford Defeat Tennessee:  It’s going to be an incredibly tall order for Wofford to win this game, however, the path to an upset for this No. 15 seed is pretty simply, and that is they have to probably connect on 12 or more threes, while winning the battle of the boards. The Vols are 0-1 when giving up 12 threes this season, with the only team to accomplish that feat being the Vanderbilt Commodores, which connected on 12-of-27 (44.4%) in what was an 81-76 at Memorial Gym in Nashville. In fact, the Vols lead the nation in three-point field goal percentage defense (27.8%), which is going to be a tall order.

Second-chance threes could be the elixir that keeps Wofford in the game and gives them a chance at an upset. The biggest issue Wofford likely faces, however, is that they aren’t a great free throw shooting team, ranking 334th out of 355 teams nationally in free throw shooting (66.1%), and one of the main reasons that you see upsets in the tournaments is underdogs not only being able to get to the line, but knock down shots from the charity shots.

I think for Wofford to pull off a miracle against Tennessee, it will not only require at least 12 made threes, it will also require the Terriers to get at least 15 points from the free throw line. It then will need the Terriers to shoot well above its seasonal clip entering the game, and that will mean that Filewich needs to likely hit at least 70% of his shots from the line, which is something he hasn’t done in any one game all season.

However, I think back to when Furman’s Garrett Hien hit two free throws to get Furman to within two of UVA two years ago in Furman’s upset of the No. 4 Cavaliers, as he is a career 46% shooter at the line, however, was 100% when Furman needed him to be. Filewich needs that kind of clutch shooting at the line for the game if Wofford is going to have a chance to do the unthinkable.

Then, on the defensive end of the floor, Wofford needs to hold Tennessee to 42% or less shooting for the game while limiting second-chance points and offensive rebounds to single digits. I haven’t felt less confident about a SoCon team’s chances to pull an upset in the tournament since No. 16 Chattanooga had to face Hashim Thabeet and No. 1 seed UConn during the 2009 NCAA Tournament, which saw the Mocs get handed a 56-point loss (L, 47-103) by Thabeet and the Huskies. That UConn team was dominant, losing one step short of the title game to Michigan State in the Final Four.

I feel the same about Wofford in this game, and though it won’t be close to being a 56-point defeat, I just don’t feel a SoCon team vs. an SEC team in a year like this for the SEC is going to be one conducive to success for the Terriers. By comparison, Wofford, which lost 86-35 to Duke earlier this season, faced a Blue Devils team that ranks fourth according to KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency (89.7), will be facing a Tennessee team that is even better, ranking third by KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency (89.1). In my estimation, it’s the toughest opening round foe and biggest challenge for a SoCon team since that 2009 tournament.

Being a fan of SoCon hoops like I have been since my childhood, I hope the Terriers can find a way to continue to shoot at a high level from three, and I am hoping for the Vols to miss at an unorthodox rate, leaving the game in the balance in the final 5-7 minutes of the game. As we have seen in recent seasons and even during Wofford’s first decade as a SoCon member (1997-2007), which saw the Terriers knock off the likes of Auburn (2004-05), Virginia Tech (2002-03) and Cincinnati (2006-07), Wofford has made a name for themselves, much like Davidson during its time as a league member, of being able to pull these types of upsets.

No comments:

Post a Comment

NIT Final Four: Chattanooga Faces Loyola-Chicago Tuesday Night

What: 2025 NIT Semfinal Who: Chattanooga (27-9) vs. Loyola (25-11) When: April 1, 2025/9:30 p.m. EST Where: Historic Hinkle Fieldhouse (9,10...